Abiy-Jawar and the Amhara’s Ethiopia in Crisis
By Buludo Dada, August 15, 2020
Being terribly stuck between the Amharas clenched teeth caused by Shimalis Abdisa’s recent speech, Abiy Ahmed flew to the already lawless, economically stagnant, politically dysfunctional, and diminished ambition Amhara region and promised the Amharas to remove Shimalis Abdisa from his position and also dismantle the Oromia region. The assassination of Haacaaluu Hundessaa combined with Shimalis Abdisa’s speech produced several distinctive realities;
1. The anger of the Oromo people
2. The incarceration of Jawar Mohamed and his associates
3. The Amharas mistrust of Abiy Ahmed
Abiy’s subversive style always played better among the Amharas and helped him emerged as a lonely voice of nostalgia for the Habasha dictatorship, at a time when such sentiments are taboo around the Oromians. Previously, Abiy drew the Amhara’s attention by attacking the Oromo nationalism, and by jailing members of the Oromo Liberation Front, and gave the impression that they are taken seriously, and earned him trust of the far-right, unrefined and vulgar Amhara nationalists.
Hacaaluu’s assassination also rendered another unexpected outcome albeit incomplete. Before the killing of Haacaaluu took place, Jawar orchestrated the destruction of the OLF. This was due to Dawud Ibsa’s refusal to accept the Gaadisa Qabsawoota political arrangement. To assist Jawar, Leencoo Baatii was assigned by Abiy Ahmed, and both men constantly encouraged Araarsoo Biqilaa, Atoomsaa Kumsa, Qajeelaa Mardaasaa, Ibsa Nagawo and Tolara Hadaba to take over the OLF.
Having direct access to the intelligence, police, and the entire army apparatus, Leencoo intimidated the splinter group when he had to, and also fantasized the gains the splinter group might enjoy after getting rid off Dawud Ibsa. Basically, the ambitions Leencoo and Jawar were able to create in the minds of these men was almost eerie. They made them to believe that Abiy doesn’t want to take the country back to the nineteenth-century monarchy system. Instead, he wants to exercise a stabilizing role and correct the economic ills of the empire based on UNITY doctrine, which said to require the assassination of nationalist Oromians and the eliminating of corrupt government officials.
In the ensuing steps, they told the splinter group that Abiy acted with a sense of noblesse oblige and modicum restraint. That changed the views of the splinter group even when the ensuing dictatorship sprinting forward with extraordinary speed, not visible to Jawar himself. Obviously, now Abiy has found the right time to send Jawar to a 15 potential years time imprisonment, Jawar must understand that he was wrong for worrying about what might happen if empire Ethiopia collapses.
Indeed, sitting in his prison cell, chastened and unpopular, Jawar must clearly see the true nature of Abiy Ahmed’s Nostalgia. Not quite disgraced, yet unable to dictate the terms of the transition to democracy as he fantasied, Jawar tried to correct the split he created inside the OLF, but since he couldn’t reach out to the splinter group from his prison cell, he simply expressed regrets.
Of course, not only Jawar but even the ODF team failed to understand that empire states do not collapse without major war taking place. In other words, instated of trying to manage the outcome of the revolution that led to the collapse of the EPRDF, jawar and the ODF leaders worried about the collapse of empire Ethiopia. By doing so, they created a dangerous political situation for the Oromo people. Now, Jawar, Lammaa, Xayibaa, and likes may say in private that politics under Abiy Ahmed has been a rough ride.
The truth the matter however is, the Amharas are delighted that one of their own is running their empire; the Tigreans are full of regrets; Isayas Afawarqi feels vindicated; the Oromians and the Walayitas are largely disappointed.
As the Amharas vowed to rewrite Oromia’s school textbooks to de-emphasize the Oromo culture, those who have not forgotten the Amharanization evil express shock at Abiy’s perpetual efforts of disfranchising the Oromo liberation camp. Meantime, the retired OLF leaders such as Leencoo Lata, Galaasaa Dilboo and the like live a shameful life fighting a constant conflict inside their heads, as they tried to make sense out of their completely irrelevant lives summed up in a shit show.
Albeit all the events that took place in the empire Ethiopia for the past two years, certain things remain true. Empire Ethiopia is close to collapse. As Oromia continues to descend into a morass of street protests and economic boycots, the worst economic challenges and series of unprecedented corruption and scandals will follow. Crimes will continue to rise in the empire Ethiopia more than any other country in the world.
The Eritreans soldiers brought to Ethiopia to serve as mercenary killers will not be able to fight the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and keep Abiy Ahmed in power for too long. Although many may find my prediction that the Tigreans will expand their territory all the way to the red sea and to the Barentuu hills to be profoundly ironic, given the Eritrean people disdain for Isayas Afawarqi and the military insubordination, there is a great chance for the collapse of the illogical, irrational and unbalanced government of Isayas Afawarqi.
If the election that the Tigreans are planning to hold soon succeeds, Abiy Ahmed’s nostalgia for Minilik’s rule will decline and Oromian’s demand for democratic election will surge, paving a rougher road for Abiy Ahmed’s Medemer wagon. When that happens, he will be forced to represent less of the old Habasha rule and more of the idea behind the revolution.
Abiy Ahmed’s response to Oromian’s demands has been at best ham-fisted as much the assassination of the Oromo nationalists is a self-inflicted wound catalyzed by settlers hate and fear of human freedom. The clash of civilizations that the scaremongering Habashas portray as the looming danger against the unity of Ethiopia is nothing but a disaster produced out of a thin air. This has already been a train wreck of pathos, lies, and contradictions that forced the Eritrean, the Tigreans, and the Oromians to fight and win against Ethiopia’s pathological liers, such as Abiy Ahmed.
Sure enough, the Eritrean military intervention requested by Abiy Ahmed has brought the Eritrean soldiers to Oromia and is fighting against OLA today. But this is not the first time the Eritrean military was hired as mercenaries and fought the Oromo people. They have also done the same in Congo but lost because they weren’t fit to fight. Although organized and coordinated with the Habasha army, they don’t seem to have much enthusiasm to fight and win against the Oromo fighters in 2020. Abiy is already impatient and insisting on an offensive plan to achieve that goal.
As he is waging a war against the Oromo people, Abiy finds himself embroiled in multiple challenges that he will never be able to overcome. Civil wars, economic recession, foreign policy disaster, political unrest, rising crime, and the vulgarity of the die-hard proponents of the Habasha rule are few of the challenges Abiy has to add to the list. But does he really understand what the Eritrean military and the assassination of the Oromo nationalists can achieve?