Ethiopia’s democratization at risk

Germany (DW) — Ethiopian prime-minister Abiy Ahmed was once awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for ending a war and raising hopes of democratic change. These hopes are being dashed by his heavy-handed response to anti-government protests.

Large anti-government protests that broke out last week, following the assassination of popular Oromo musician Haacaaluu Hundeessaa, soon led to a government clamp-down. So far, more than 166 people have been killed and almost 2,300 arrested, including leaders of the opposition. Ethiopians have been cut off from the internet for an entire week as soldiers and police continue to patrol the streets of the capital Addis Ababa and other hotspots.

The scenario is reminiscent of similar crises in authoritarian-led countries. Up until recently, Ethiopia was hailed by the rest of the world as a shining example of democratization in Africa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who came to power in 2018, swiftly made peace with neighboring Eritrea, ending a long and costly war. He also implemented measures aimed at restoring civil liberties like freedom of the press and opinion and promised a new, democratic Ethiopia. In 2019 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his efforts. But, in view of current developments, was thattoo-rash a decision by the Nobel committee?

democratization
The assassination of popular musician Haacaaluu Hundeessaa triggered a new wave of violence

Rumors add to insecurity

“This is a very challenging development for the prime minister,” Ahmed Soliman, a Horn of Africa researcher from London-based think tank Chatham House told DW. According to the analyst, “[Abiy’s] need to try and bring some calm to this situation and to try to resolve it is one of his greater challenges. And it has been [so] since he took over: How he can knit together the nations that make up Ethiopia.” Abiy’s strategy includes playing down his own Oromo origins in an effort to represent the interests of all Ethiopians.

By Monday, the situation in the capital had calmed down. But rumors contined to proliferate, adding to the lingering climate of uncertainty, according to DW’s Addis Ababa correspondent Yoahannes Geberegziabeher.

“It was said that the water was poisoned, which spread desperation,” he said. “Authorities had to come out and deny it. Then they said that the prime minister had been killed. The rumors aim at encouraging more people to join the rebellion in Addis.”

Geberegziabeher also described the trail of destruction in and around the capital: “Considering who the dead and wounded are, there are clear indications that they were targeted for ethnic reasons.”

Some critics derided the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Abiy Ahmed

Back to the old, repressive ways

On Friday, Abiy blamed “dissidents” for the killing of protest singer Hundeessaa, and for the subsequent violence which he said were “coordinated attempts” to destabilize the country. Soliman sees a connection between the government’s reaction to the surge of violence and the political situation.

“There is quite a fractured political scene,” he explained. And the problem is not confined to conflict between different ethnic groups. Politicians from the Oromo Federalist Congress like Jawar Mohammed have also been detained. “Jawar is a very prominent Oromo leader and he has been using his profile in order to push Oromo national interests,” says Soliman. “He is clearly a political challenger to the prime minister.”

Read more: Opinion: Is ‘Emperor Abiy’ at the gates in Ethiopia?

Abiy’s cause at home was not helped by his decision to postpone  elections scheduled for August 2020 for another year due to the coronavirus pandemic. His critics saw the move as an attempt to hold on to power. In the meantime, they say, he is reintroducing the old tactics of the repressive and authoritarian state he promised to reform.

“As a former senior very high-raking within the EPDRF’s [Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front] intelligence, I think he is using the tactics that he is very well aware of,” says Soliman. While he believes that there is no denying that the reforms propelled by Abiy did turn the country around, Soliman also fears that it seems “too easy for the security forces to turn back to familiar tools, like cutting the internet, arresting the overly critical and journalists being accused of violence. None of this is wanted.”

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS Starting over again Authorities have started returning home some of the hundreds of thousands of ethnic Gedeos who fled attacks in Ethiopia’s southern Oromia region, which is mainly populated by ethnic Oromos. But humanitarian organizations accuse the government of forcing Gedeos back to villages where they have lost everything – and still don’t feel safe.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Critical shortages of land
About two months ago, the streets of Hinche – nestled in the green hills of West Guji zone – were empty. Now, almost all of the ethnic Gedeos who used to live here have come back after fleeing ethnic violence last year. West Guji is part of the Oromia region, and home to a majority of ethnic Oromos. The long-simmering conflict is primarily about land ownership.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Accusations of forced returns
The residents of Hinche, as well as other ethnic Gedeos, were left with little choice but to return to their village after the government razed the refugee camps and limited humanitarian aid in the Gedeo zone. Observers accuse authorities of organizing ‘forced returns’, which they say will aggravate an already tense situation.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Dwellings looted and razed
Zele is happy to be back home with his wife and six children. However, life here in Hinche is very difficult, especially as the rainy season starts settling in. Zele’s house was destroyed and his belongings stolen in the violence, so he built this shelter. The family lives off monthly food aid of around 40kg of grain and 2 liters of oil.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Fear of futher attacks
Most of the returnees are farmers but haven’t been able to cultivate their land since they have returned. Dingete is now working as a daily laborer to feed her four children. “Our farm is far from here, and I am afraid to go there because some people said they saw the Oromo armed groups in the area,” she says.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Reconciliation efforts
Local authorities claim security isn’t a problem. They say elders have settled the issues and militias and communities are working together to identify wrongdoers. “Gedeos and [Oromos] believe we are brothers, and we live together. They have the same values, the same market, they marry each other,” says Aberra Buno, the chief administrator of the West Guji zone.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Lack of justice
Many Gedeos are frustrated about what they perceive as a lack of justice. In Cherqo, more than 1,000 people fled, and almost all of the houses were destroyed. “Those who committed these things have not been arrested or faced justice – not a single person has been captured so far,” says Abebe, Cherqo’s administrator. The Guji police say they have arrested more than 200 people over the violence.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Forgotten about
Authorities say they have returned almost 100% those displaced in the Gedeo-Guji violence. However, thousands of people originally from the East Guji zone still live in camps in the Gedeo zone, seemingly forgotten. Food aid was stopped more than two months ago. Hundreds of children live in alarming conditions and don’t go to school.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Disease and malnutrition
“We are starving, people suffer from diarrhea, our children have to go to the streets and collect food in the garbage and bring it to their families,” say Almaz, who has been living in this camp in Dilla in the Gedeo zone for more than a year.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Food aid stopped
Authorities in the Gedeo zone say they have requested food from the federal government, and then they can return the families to East Guji. But many Gedeo people don’t feel safe going back. There were more reports of killings of ethnic Gedeos in East Guji at the end of May.

ETHIOPIA’S NEGLECTED CRISIS
Incomplete statistics
Humanitarian organizations say thousands of Gedeos who fled their homes in the West Guji zone are living in informal settlements or renting houses. They are difficult to keep track of and thus don’t appear in official statistics. Nor do they receive any aid.
Author: Maria Gerth-Niculescu

An urgent need for reconciliation

Murithi Mutiga, project director for the Horn of Africa region with the International Crisis Group, is one of many observers calling for a swift deescalation of the worsening situation.

”A wiser course of action is to strive to create an atmosphere of reconciliation and dialogue,” he said, pointing out that the past week represented the most serious challenge yet to Ethiopia’s transition to democracy. While the situation seems to have calmed down in Addis and parts of Oromia ”the scale of the violence, the degree of grievance witnessed on the streets and the danger of instability” was still quite high, he added.

Analysts agree that it was Abiy’s push to open political space which gave Ethiopians the opportunity to air their political and ethnic grievances — something they were not allowed to do under former regimes. This has made national reconciliation more urgent than ever. But there is also no denying that abuses are still being committed by security forces, according to reports compiled by several human rights organizations.

On Friday, Abiy said that those responsible for destructive actions would be held accountable. That could cut both ways.

 

 

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