Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed’s PP regime is set for self-destruction anyway: only federalists/confederalists may save it
What’s today’s Ethiopia is a conflict framework created militarily, in the 4th quarter of the 19th century by an Abyssinian warlord-turned-emperor Minilik, as an empire packed with many potent socio-political contradictions set on default to tear it apart anytime rule by force is put to rest. EPRDF’s almost three decade long rule [1991-2018] delivered relative stability and increasing economic growth within this conflict framework due to two main reasons:<
- Through centralized party structures of rent-dispensary mechanisms to micronized local elite, the EPRDF stroke some balance between organic political forces of centrifugalism and centripetalism, including via employment of corrupted ways, while maintaining a facade position of centrism itself in the empire. They employed an effective tool called “democratic centralism” to achieve this.
- Robust support from the international community—partly due to reason described in number 1 above. This helped the EPRDF regime evolve into a major stabilizing factor in the turbulent Horn of Africa region at a time when the west needed it most.
What’s more, if Abiy Ahmed’s genocidal PP regime would be lucky enough to survive the ongoing civil war that it waged in the country, it’s government is going to be packed with socio-political elements which will even provide more potency to the historical and still unresolved contradictions of the structural conflict framework that characterizes the Ethiopian State.
Imagine Dima Nego or Galasa Dilbo (former leaders of the radical breed of the OLF/OLA) sitting in one government in which the viscerally Minilikan clerico-fascists and religious crusaders like Daniel Kibret and EPRP’s former opportunist-city-slicker Birhanu Nega are supposed to assert more authority to make sure that #EthiopiaPrevails and then after prospers.
My point is that Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed’s poorly thatched up PP regime is certainly set for self-destruction whether or not it wins the ongoing civil war anyway. Only federalist may save it.