Country Risk: New Ethiopian PM’s approach towards demonstrators’ demands

Country Risk: New Ethiopian PM’s approach towards demonstrators’ demands, contraband networks will determine protest and violence one-year outlook

Jordan Anderson – IHS Jane’s Intelligence Weekly

Key Points

  • Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will likely ease the restrictions and the security forces’ presence under the state of emergency (in place since February) and allow it to expire in August 2018.
  • Anti-government protests in Oromia and Amhara regions will likely resume within the one-year outlook if Ahmed fails to address their key grievances.
  • Increased likelihood of renewed violence in eastern Oromia and the Somali region, driven by Somali region paramilitaries, particularly if the government clamps down on contraband networks.

Event

New Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a cabinet reshuffle on 19 April, appointing 10 new ministers, as well as non-cabinet ministers in advisory roles.

Key choices in the cabinet reshuffle include the appointment of Motuma Mekassa (formerly minister of mining) as minister of defence, the retaining of Workneh Gebeyehu as minister of foreign affairs, and the appointment of Abadula Gemeda (formerly speaker of the House of People’s Representatives, the lower house of Ethiopia’s parliament) as national security adviser, a minister without portfolio. All three are members of the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO), the same constituent party of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Consequently, the OPDO now holds the key positions in and dominates Ethiopia’s National Security Council.


Top US official’s visit to Eritrea indicates renewed relations, assisting sanctions’ lifting, investment, and Ethiopian peace talks

Event – April 24, 2018

(Jane’s 360) — US Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Donald Yamamoto visited Eritrea on 22–24 April, the first visit by a top US official in years.

No details have been made public, other than Yamamoto was due to meet Eritrean officials, foreign diplomats, and US embassy staff in Asmara, before moving on to Djibouti and Ethiopia. In November 2017, Yamamoto, a former US envoy to all three countries, announced that the United States was ready to facilitate peace talks between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has said that he is ready for dialogue. However, Eritrea insists on Ethiopia’s withdrawal from occupied territory, particularly the town of Badme, awarded to Eritrea by international arbitration following the two countries’ 1998–2000 border war, but never vacated by Ethiopia.

 

2 Comments

  1. If Qeerroo / Oromia freedom fighters believe that because of abiye Ahmed ( opdo TPLF loyalist ) as prime minister of fake apartheid Abyssinia will change statsco and abandon their struggle against Abyssinia oppression and slavery….Oromia nation will pay very high price …Oromia nation .must not waste this opportunity of unique Oromia unity and power…,!
    Oromia shall be free soon
    And rest of oppressed nations in fake apartheid minority Abyssinia will follow suit inshaALLAAH

  2. @ Alisomali,

    Qeerroo’s struggle has a cause and goal. It took many years to come to this level. Nothing will stop short of that goal even if enemy agents like OPDOs who have been killing, torturing and have been doing all they could to destroy Qeerroo and the Oromo just struggle, are temporarily trying to steal the struggle.

    The main important point in the Oromo peoples struggle is the solidarity of other oppressed nations and nationalities youth struggle and the coordination between Qeerroo and Somali youth, Sidama youth, Afar, Benishangul, Gambella and others.
    To realize that kind of solidarity, it is advisable if you guys work on your side to empower Qeerroo!

    Your usual input is appreciated.

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